Possible scenarios

When writing about what could happen, you are expressing your beliefs and opinions and not facts. I have read a variety of different versions of how the future could unfold. Ultimately I think it's up to each and every one of us to choose what to believe in according to what makes sense and what information you have about reality. To me it is always important however not to be afraid to explore others opinions, even if they seem to clash with your comfort zone.

The scenarios I have come across predict a future anywhere from a slow rocky decline over the next decades to an almost apocalyptic like event that will stretch for two centuries. I have not completely agreed with any of the scenarios that I have read so far, so I will do my best to describe how I think it will be.

Everyday I hear from family, friends and in the media about what they will do after the recession is over, not to mention the fact that many consider it to be over already. There is no doubt in my mind that we have not seen the worst of if yet and that after the next series of "bumps in the economy" there will not be any way to get back to how it was before. Is there no replacement for oil then? I certainly hope so, and I believe in our ability of innovation, the problem is that it is too late. In the time frame that we are facing before things really start turning ugly (most likely before 2012) there is no way to implement the necessary real capital to move over to another source of energy (especially liquid or otherwise transportable) even if there was one. In particular since the necessary political and public will is far from mustered. Things will be happening faster than we believe and with out the proper preparation there is no way that we will find the time to implement the necessary changes when "shit hits the fan" so to speak.

Instead the general ignorance will lead to riots and chaos, making it even harder to organize the necessary means to solve any of the problems. Those that are already to stubborn or afraid to accept the reality of what is going on will likely continue to do so, expecting the government or some miracle to set things back to the way they were.

As supply shortages in our natural resources continue to increase, prices will spiral out of control. The oil shortage will raise the cost of most types of food production and transport costs, making imported foods inaccessible to most. As nations realize the implications of resource shortage, resource rich countries will implement bans on exports and nations with less resources will be starved off. Even worse, civil unrest and general panic will most likely lead to war, particularly over resources and probably on a global scale. The global population will decline in a rapid rate and so will the standard of living.

During this period of chaos and confusion the level of innovation will probably be quite low. As time goes (most likely at least a few decades) things will hopefully start to stabilize and it is my belief (or hope, however naive) that this is when we will find and/or refine an energy source that can replace oil.